Confidence Intervals

BACKGROUND

Research has consistently identified firearm availability as a risk factor for suicide. However, existing studies are relatively small in scale, estimates vary widely, and no study appears to have tracked risks from commencement of firearm ownership.

METHODS

We identified handgun acquisitions and deaths in a cohort of 26.3 million male and female residents of California, 21 years old or older, who had not previously acquired handguns. Cohort members were followed for up to 12 years 2 months (from October 18, 2004, to December 31, 2016). We used survival analysis to estimate the relationship between handgun ownership and both all-cause mortality and suicide (by firearm and by other methods) among men and women. The analysis allowed the baseline hazard to vary according to neighborhood and was adjusted for age, race and ethnic group, and ownership of long guns (i.e., rifles or shotguns).

RESULTS

A total of 676,425 cohort members acquired one or more handguns, and 1,457,981 died; 17,894 died by suicide, of which 6691 were suicides by firearm. Rates of suicide by any method were higher among handgun owners, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 3.34 for all male owners as compared with male nonowners (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.13 to 3.56) and 7.16 for female owners as compared with female nonowners (95% CI, 6.22 to 8.24). These rates were driven by much higher rates of suicide by firearm among both male and female handgun owners, with a hazard ratio of 7.82 for men (95% CI, 7.26 to 8.43) and 35.15 for women (95% CI, 29.56 to 41.79). Handgun owners did not have higher rates of suicide by other methods or higher all-cause mortality. The risk of suicide by firearm among handgun owners peaked immediately after the first acquisition, but 52% of all suicides by firearm among handgun owners occurred more than 1 year after acquisition.

CONCLUSIONS

Handgun ownership is associated with a greatly elevated and enduring risk of suicide by firearm. (Funded by the Fund for a Safer Future and others.)

Background: Obesity is a chronic disease with limited treatment options in pediatric patients. Liraglutide may be useful for weight management in adolescents with obesity.

Methods: In this randomized, double-blind trial, which consisted of a 56-week treatment period and a 26-week follow-up period, we enrolled adolescents (12 to <18 years of age) with obesity and a poor response to lifestyle therapy alone. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either liraglutide (3.0 mg) or placebo subcutaneously once daily, in addition to lifestyle therapy. The primary end point was the change from baseline in the body-mass index (BMI; the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) standard-deviation score at week 56.

Results: A total of 125 participants were assigned to the liraglutide group and 126 to the placebo group. Liraglutide was superior to placebo with regard to the change from baseline in the BMI standard-deviation score at week 56 (estimated difference, -0.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.37 to -0.08; P = 0.002). A reduction in BMI of at least 5% was observed in 51 of 113 participants in the liraglutide group and in 20 of 105 participants in the placebo group (estimated percentage, 43.3% vs. 18.7%), and a reduction in BMI of at least 10% was observed in 33 and 9, respectively (estimated percentage, 26.1% vs. 8.1%). A greater reduction was observed with liraglutide than with placebo for BMI (estimated difference, -4.64 percentage points) and for body weight (estimated difference, -4.50 kg [for absolute change] and -5.01 percentage points [for relative change]). After discontinuation, a greater increase in the BMI standard-deviation score was observed with liraglutide than with placebo (estimated difference, 0.15; 95% CI, 0.07 to 0.23). More participants in the liraglutide group than in the placebo group had gastrointestinal adverse events (81 of 125 [64.8%] vs. 46 of 126 [36.5%]) and adverse events that led to discontinuation of the trial treatment (13 [10.4%] vs. 0). Few participants in either group had serious adverse events (3 [2.4%] vs. 5 [4.0%]). One suicide, which occurred in the liraglutide group, was assessed by the investigator as unlikely to be related to the trial treatment.

Conclusions: In adolescents with obesity, the use of liraglutide (3.0 mg) plus lifestyle therapy led to a significantly greater reduction in the BMI standard-deviation score than placebo plus lifestyle therapy. (Funded by Novo Nordisk; NN8022-4180 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02918279.).

Background

Aspirin is often prescribed for the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) however, recent randomized trials (RCTs) have challenged this practice. Despite this, aspirin is commonly recommended for high risk primary prevention. We tested the hypothesis that aspirin is more efficacious for the primary prevention of ASCVD, as the baseline risk increases.

Methods

RCTs that compared aspirin to control for primary prevention and evaluated ASCVD (composite of myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke) and major bleeding were included. Rate ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. A regression analysis was performed using the ASCVD event rate in the control arm of each RCT as the moderator.

Results

Twelve RCTs were identified with 963,829 patient years of follow-up. Aspirin was associated with a reduction in ASCVD (4.7 versus 5.3 events per 1,000 patient years; RR 0.86; 95% CI 0.79-0.92). There was increased major bleeding among aspirin users (2.5 versus 1.8 events per 1000 patient years, RR 1.41 95% CI, 1.29-1.54). Regression analysis found no relationship between the log rate ratio of ASCVD or major bleeding and incidence of ASCVD in the control arm of each RCT.

Conclusion

Aspirin is associated with a reduction in ASCVD when used for primary prevention; however, it is unlikely to be clinically significant given the increase in bleeding. More importantly, aspirin's treatment effect does not increase as ASCVD risk increases as many hypothesize. There is no suggestion from this data that use of aspirin for higher risk primary prevention patients is beneficial.

Background. Depressive disorders can affect long-term mental and physical health functioning among children and adolescents, including increased risk of suicide. Despite access to several nonpharmacological, pharmacological, and combined treatment options for childhood depression, clinicians contend with sparse evidence and are concerned about harms associated with treatment.

Methods. We conducted a systematic review to evaluate the efficacy, comparative effectiveness, and moderators of benefits and harms of available nonpharmacological and pharmacological treatments for children and adolescents with a confirmed diagnosis of a depressive disorder (DD)—major depressive disorder (MDD), persistent depressive disorder (previously termed dysthymia) or DD not otherwise specified. We searched five databases and other sources for evidence available from inception to May 29, 2019, dually screened the results, and analyzed eligible studies.

Results. We included in our analyses data from 60 studies (94 articles) that met our review eligibility criteria. For adolescents (study participants’ ages range from 12 to 18 years) with MDD, cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), fluoxetine, escitalopram, and combined fluoxetine and CBT may improve depressive symptoms (1 randomized controlled trial [RCT] each, n ranges from 212 to 311); whether the magnitude of improvement is clinically significant is unclear. Among adolescents or children with MDD, CBT plus medications (8–17 years) may be associated with lower rates of relapse (1 RCT [n = 121]). In the same population (6–17 years), selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) may be associated with improved response (7 RCTs [n = 1,525]; risk difference [RD], 72/1,000 [95% confidence interval (CI), 2 to 24], I2 = 9%) and functional status (5 RCTs [n = 941]; standardized mean difference, 0.16 [95% CI, 0.03 to 0.29]; I2 = 0%). For adolescents or children with any DD (7–18 years), CBT or family therapy may be associated with improvements in symptoms, response, or functional status (1 RCT each, n ranges from 64 to 99). Among children with any DD (7–12 years), family-based interpersonal therapy may be associated with improved symptoms (1 RCT, n = 38). Psychotherapy trials did not report harms. SSRIs may be associated with a higher risk of serious adverse events among adolescents or children with MDD (7–18 years; 9 RCTs [n = 2,206]; RD, 20/1,000 [95% CI, 1 to 440]; I2, 4%) and with a higher risk of withdrawal due to adverse events among adolescents with MDD (12–18 years; 4 RCTs [n = 1,296], RD, 26/1,000 [95% CI, 6 to 45]; I2, 0%). Paroxetine (1 RCT [n = 180]) may be associated with a higher risk of suicidal ideation or behaviors among adolescents with MDD (12–18 years). Evidence was insufficient to judge the risk of suicidal ideation or behavior for other SSRIs for adolescents and children with MDD or other DD (7–18 years) (10 RCTs [n = 2,368]; relative risk, 1.14 [95% CI, 0.89 to 1.45]; I2, 8%). However, this report excluded data on inpatients and those without depressive disorders, whom the Food and Drug Administration included in finding an increased risk of suicidality for all antidepressants across all indications.

Conclusion. Efficacious treatments exist for adolescents with MDD. SSRIs may be associated with increased withdrawal and serious adverse events. No evidence on harms of psychotherapy were identified.